One thing that is found universally among less-than-excellent poker players works to our advantage in determining bet sizes: most players do not distinguish between bets that are somewhere between about 55% and 90% of the pot - they are all considered "in between." In other words, half-pot bets are distinctive, as are pot sized bets, but the middle area is very flexible in the eyes of our opponents. This gives us the freedom to vary our bet sizes in that range, betting a little less with a miss, and a little more with a hit. As long as we're careful to not give off bet size tells to the good players, we can take advantage of this phenomenon.
Betting 90% of the pot on the flop, and 100% on the turn, gives us a pot of 84 BB on the river, with 58 BB behind in the stacks, assuming 100 BB starting stacks and 10 BB in preflop. We should be able to get quite a few river bets called here by second-best hands.
This line should cover almost any situations we encounter in 100 BB online NLHE games, and gives us the flexibility to bet a little less on the flop when making continuation bets or when one of the players doesn't have as many chips as the other.
Effective Stacks
If I begin a hand with 1000 BB and you begin with 50 BB, I can never win more than 50 BB from you (on this hand), no matter how hard I try. Therefore, when considering bet sizes on the flop, it is wise to consider adjusting bets based on the size of the remaining stacks. The smallest of the remaining stacks is what determines the size of the effective stacks. If I have 1000 left and you have 50, the effective stacks for this hand are 50, and I must adjust my play accordingly.
Sizing the flop bet to account for effective stacks is wise. We have already determined that pot bets on each street will enable us to bet 13 times the preflop pot by the end of the hand. The key is to determine the relationship between the current pot size and the effective remaining stacks.
Bet size as a percentage of the pot on each street
| Multiples of the preflop pot that can be bet total, with same-size bets on each street
| 50
| 3.5
| 60
| 4.8
| 70
| 6.4
| 75
| 7.3
| 80
| 8.3
| 90
| 10.5
| 100
| 13
| 110
| 15.9
| 120
| 19.2
|
If one of the players is on a shortstack, with only 35 BB remaining, and the pot is 10 BB before the flop, then half-pot bets on each street will get all the money in. If the effective stacks are much larger than 13 times the pot, then it is more difficult to get all the money in (without major overbets), unless there is a raise on one or more streets. Hopefully, when you have a monster hand, your opponent will have a good second-best hand, and you can get a raise at some point, enabling you to further build the pot.
Conclusion
Effective postflop betting all starts with a proper flop bet. This series of articles demonstrates that something in the range of 50-100% of the pot is a reasonable flop bet, with most falling in the 65-90% range. There are several reasons to vary within this range. One might choose to make smaller bets, choosing to keep a little fold equity intact by being able to make a significant overbet on the river. Sometimes a big overbet with the nuts when you know you're likely to get a showdown can gain you the ability to make a play on someone later. There are many possible approaches, but all good postflop plays require an awareness of stack sizes and how it relates to the current pot. Practice with these numbers away from the table will raise your postflop play to new heights.
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